Poland is currently navigating a period of political uncertainty following a significant voter turnout in an election where opposition parties seem to have secured a combined majority. The ruling nationalist conservative party, however, garnered more votes than any single party and has expressed its intention to continue governing. As the nation awaits the final election results, its political landscape remains in flux.
While the official results have not yet been released by the state electoral commission, a late exit poll, conducted by polling agency Ipsos, provides a preliminary glimpse into the electoral landscape. This exit poll combines the results of an exit poll conducted on election day with 50% of the votes counted.
According to the Ipsos exit poll, the ruling nationalist conservative Law and Justice party secured 36.6% of the votes. The opposition Civic Coalition, led by Donald Tusk, obtained 31% of the votes, while the centrist Third Way coalition secured 13.5%. The Left party garnered 8.6%, and the far-right Confederation received 6.4% of the votes.
Ipsos’ preliminary data indicates that the ruling Law and Justice party, headed by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, is likely to secure 198 seats, marking a significant drop from the slim majority it has maintained over the past eight years. Even with the inclusion of the far-right Confederation Party, they would not have a parliamentary majority.
Nevertheless, the ruling party’s campaign manager, Joachim Brudzinski, expressed confidence in an interview on RMF FM radio, asserting that his party had secured a victory and would seek to form a government led by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.
Conversely, the exit poll indicated that the Civic Coalition, Third Way, and Left could collectively secure 248 seats, thus constituting a majority in parliament.
The electoral commission has announced that it expects to release the final election results by early Tuesday, providing a clearer picture of the political landscape and the distribution of parliamentary seats. Poland’s future government will likely be shaped by the ongoing negotiations and alliances between political parties, as both the ruling party and the opposition make their claims to leadership.
