In November of the previous year, Paraguay conducted its first census in a decade, a monumental undertaking that initially encountered various challenges. A significant portion of the workforce recruited for the household survey in the capital, Asunción, and its sprawling suburban areas failed to participate. Among those who did participate, the neatly mapped neighborhoods bore little resemblance to the complex reality of brick bungalows and plywood shacks before them. The frustration was palpable, with numerous individuals waiting in vain for census takers to knock on their doors, leading to a wave of complaints on social media.
However, the biggest surprise emerged when Paraguay’s National Statistical Institute (INE) released preliminary data on August 31. It indicated an unexpected and substantial decline in the population—a rare occurrence for a rapidly growing emerging economy. The previous census in 2012 reported nearly 6.5 million Paraguayans. Official projections anticipate a population of close to 7.5 million by 2022. Astonishingly, the recent census suggested that the population was barely 6.1 million. The response to these findings was often one of disbelief.
To account for this population mystery, Norma Medina, an INE official, offered an explanation. Close to half a million Paraguayans have emigrated since the early 2000s, including a significant number of young women seeking employment as nurses and nannies in Spain and Argentina. The Paraguayan fertility rate, once at 3.5 children per woman, has significantly declined over the past two decades to 2.3. Although life expectancy has increased, the pandemic has held it at a level in the early 70s.
The census figures for 2012 also have their share of blame. During that time, the country had just experienced the impeachment of its president, leading to the replacement of personnel responsible for the census. Contractors engaged in the survey went on strike due to delayed payments. Ultimately, they reached only around 75% of the population. This challenge resulted in reliance on the 2002 census data, which recorded a population of 5.2 million. This information was used to estimate the population in 2012 and project its growth. However, birth rates decreased and migration rates surged during the early 2000s, further diverting the projection from the actual population figures.
In contrast, the most recent census is believed to be far more accurate. According to Verónica Serafini, an analyst at CADPE, a think tank, INE’s workers diligently visited remote farms and indigenous communities in the weeks following the census launch. A subsequent survey indicates they reached an impressive 93.7% of households. The revised, lower population figure aligns with data on births and deaths recorded by hospitals, as well as student enrollment records.
For years, civil servants have been reporting that the countryside appears emptier than the official figures suggest. The new data also suggests that Paraguay’s demographic dividend may be dwindling sooner than anticipated. This situation implies that the nation will require more formal jobs and increased tax revenues to support its aging population.
Paraguay’s conservative President Santiago Peña envisions a bright future for his country. A former finance minister, he won the election in April with promises of creating 500,000 jobs, doubling the GDP, and maintaining low taxes. He has boldly declared that Paraguay’s underdevelopment stems primarily from a devastating war that occurred 150 years ago rather than his party’s policies. Unfortunately for ordinary Paraguayans, while the revised population data may boost the country’s GDP per capita, they are unlikely to experience an immediate increase in their income in the coming year.
