The International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD) has predicted a substantial increase in migration to Europe in 2024, driven by concerns about impending changes in immigration policies. As election campaigns unfold across Europe and the United States, where immigration is expected to be a contentious issue, the ICMPD foresees a rush of individuals seeking to reach the continent before the implementation of new laws designed to restrict arrivals.
The ICMPD, based in Austria, describes this phenomenon as the “closed-shop effect.” According to Michael Spindelegger, the director general of the ICMPD, people are likely to respond to the discourse on migration during election campaigns and feel compelled to arrive in the European Union before stringent measures take effect. This surge is anticipated to be particularly pronounced amid the political uncertainty surrounding the war in the Middle East and the potential return of Donald Trump to power in the United States.
The ICMPD’s annual report highlights that new migration laws agreed upon by the European Union (EU) at the end of the previous year could initially act as a magnet rather than a deterrent. The Guardian notes that a US crackdown on migratory routes might redirect Venezuelans and Colombians to visa-free visitor routes to Spain. The ICMPD emphasizes the need for politicians to intensify efforts in creating legal pathways and collaborating with private enterprises to establish recruitment and training centers in regions such as Africa and central Asia, significant sources of migration to Europe.
Contrary to the xenophobic stance of certain anti-immigrant politicians, Spindelegger emphasizes Europe’s need for migrants to sustain a robust workforce. Echoing the sentiments of EU Commissioner Ylva Johansson, who cited the requirement for 1 million more workers in the EU, Spindelegger contends that the numbers are even higher, with 1 million needed in Germany alone and 500,000 in Austria. The think tank stresses that private sector partnerships with EU governments can offer a more extensive array of legal opportunities for migrants, addressing labor shortages and supporting economic growth.
The ICMPD has been instrumental in launching numerous projects involving private companies that provide training to individuals in non-EU countries, creating pathways for employment in partner countries. While emphasizing the importance of legal migration routes, Spindelegger highlights the need for heightened political attention to ensure the effectiveness of these initiatives. He underscores the potential economic repercussions, warning that if the private sector faces delays in recruiting the needed workforce, companies may relocate investments elsewhere.
The ICMPD anticipates that final data from the EU for 2023 will reveal over 1 million asylum applications, marking a significant increase of approximately 20% from 2022 and reaching the highest number since 2016. This projection underscores the complex intersection of political, economic, and humanitarian factors influencing migration dynamics in the coming year.
