Renowned entrepreneur Elon Musk has suggested that superhuman artificial intelligence, exceeding the cognitive abilities of any individual on Earth, could materialize as soon as next year. This prediction marks a significant revision of his earlier projection, which had set the timeline for the emergence of superintelligent AI by 2029. While “superhuman” typically denotes superior performance in specific tasks compared to any individual human, “superintelligent” refers to surpassing the collective intellectual capacity of humanity across all tasks.
During a livestreamed interview on his social platform X, Musk stated, “My guess is that we’ll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year.” However, he cautioned that the sector’s progress could be hindered by escalating power demands and shortages of advanced AI training chips in the near future.
Musk’s concerns about the potential implications of superintelligence were evident in 2023 when he emphasized the need to address such risks during the launch of his AI startup, xAI. Reflecting on the importance of preventing a dystopian future akin to that depicted in the Terminator film series, Musk stressed the significance of responsible AI development.
Notably, xAI is actively involved in advancing the development of superintelligence. Musk highlighted the progress of its chatbot Grok AI, which he claimed is comparable to GPT-4, the leading model developed by OpenAI. Despite his optimism, Musk’s past predictions, including those related to autonomous driving and space travel, have not always materialized as anticipated.
