On Monday, CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten offered analysis on recent poll findings that indicate President Joe Biden trailing former President Donald Trump in several critical swing states, marking what he described as a significant setback for the Biden campaign.
Enten characterized the results from a New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer poll as “an absolute disaster” for Biden, highlighting Trump’s lead over the incumbent president in states like Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. According to the poll, Trump maintains substantial leads among likely voters, with margins of six points in Arizona, nine points in Georgia, and 13 points in Nevada. Notably, no Democrat has lost Nevada since 2004.
In addition to these key states, the New York Times poll also showed Trump ahead by three points in Pennsylvania and by one point in Wisconsin among likely voters, while Biden maintains a narrow lead of one point in Michigan. Biden had narrowly won all six of these critical states in the 2020 election. If Trump were to secure victories in these states in 2024 and retain other states he won in 2020, he would reclaim the White House.
Enten pointed out that Trump’s coalition appears to be diversifying, as the poll indicates a six-point increase in support among non-White voters since the 2020 election. The Sun Belt states, which include Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, are known for their greater diversity compared to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
While Trump currently holds an advantage in the Electoral College race, Enten noted that Biden still retains a pathway to victory. Despite this, the survey findings underscore the competitiveness of the upcoming election.
The poll also revealed a tie between Biden and Trump among voters aged 18-29, and it suggested that Trump could secure over 20% of Black voters, marking the highest margin for a GOP candidate since 1964.
A Fox News poll conducted in mid-April echoed some of these findings, indicating a tie between the two candidates in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Trump held leads in Georgia and Michigan.
These recent poll results highlight the evolving dynamics of the electoral landscape as both candidates gear up for the upcoming election.
