Democratic candidates in crucial Senate races across Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are currently holding leads or competitive positions against their Republican counterparts, according to recent polls conducted by The New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, and Siena College. However, President Biden faces a challenging landscape in these same battleground states, where he often trails former President Trump by significant margins.
In Pennsylvania, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey maintains a lead over Republican challenger Dave McCormick with a margin of 46% to 41%, while in Wisconsin, incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads her Republican opponent, Eric Hovde, by 49% to 40%.
The Senate races in Arizona and Nevada show narrower margins, with Democratic nominees Ruben Gallego and Jacky Rosen leading their Republican opponents, Kari Lake and Sam Brown, by slim margins of 45% to 41% and 40% to 38%, respectively. Notably, the poll did not include former U.S. Ambassador to Iceland Dr. Jeffrey Gunter, a formidable contender for the GOP nomination in Nevada.
Conversely, President Biden trails former President Trump in almost every battleground state, with only a slight lead in Wisconsin, where he holds a 47% to 45% advantage. Trump’s inclusion in the polls, alongside independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., often widens his lead, particularly in Arizona and Nevada.
Minority groups, traditionally aligned with Democrats, are showing signs of shifting support away from Biden towards either Trump or Kennedy. While Biden still maintains significant support among Black voters, Hispanic voters are split, with a notable portion expressing support for Kennedy.
Overall, voter approval of Biden’s presidency in battleground states is relatively low, with just 36% expressing approval and 60% disapproval. Additionally, Biden’s favorability ratings lag behind those of Trump, further indicating challenges for the Democratic Party in the upcoming elections.
Aside from the presidential race, Senate contests in Montana, Ohio, West Virginia, Michigan, and Maryland present pickup opportunities for Republicans, potentially shifting the balance of power in the Senate. With Democrats holding a narrow margin in the Senate, Republicans aim to secure victory in just two of these races to gain control, a target that could be even easier to achieve if Trump wins the White House, given the tie-breaking vote of the vice president.
