In the late summer of 2023, a select group of American and British political strategists convened for a dinner in London’s Marylebone neighborhood. The discussion centered on the political landscape and future strategies.
Despite positive outlooks, Labour faced unsettling challenges, notably a by-election loss in Boris Johnson’s west London seat, attributed to backlash against local policies discouraging car use. This led some officials to consider a more precise governing agenda.
Bennett and Freed advised against overcomplicating Labour’s platform with detailed policies, suggesting instead a simple, safe approach akin to Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign. This resonated with Labour’s aim to appeal broadly and emphasize Conservative failures over decades.
Labour adopted this strategy, and by mid-2024, appeared poised for a significant victory in the July 4 snap election called by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The party focused on themes of economic opportunity and national renewal, leveraging public dissatisfaction.
Labour must be cautious about relying too heavily on the Biden playbook. Biden’s reelection campaign struggles highlight the limits of his methods. While his 2020 strategy succeeded in uniting voters against Donald Trump, Biden has struggled to maintain this coalition as president. His administration’s policy achievements go unnoticed by the public, and he has not effectively communicated with voters.
Keir Starmer, Labour’s likely next prime minister, does not face Biden’s personal challenges but confronts a more dire national situation. The UK’s government finances, healthcare system, public infrastructure, and global competitiveness are in worse shape than the U.S.’s. Future Labour governance will involve tough decisions about scarce resources, unlike Biden’s early term, which saw significant economic spending.
Biden’s presidency is marred by a perception of remoteness and an inability to address immediate concerns like the cost of living. This poses a cautionary tale for Labour, which must balance aspirational rhetoric with practical governance and effective communication.
The true test will come after the election, determining if Labour can navigate the complex challenges of governance more effectively than Biden has in the U.S.
