For the first time in U.S. history, a former president is facing criminal charges in court, less than six months before voters decide whether he will return to the White House. After more than five weeks of proceedings, closing arguments in the hush money trial involving Donald Trump are set to begin. The case revolves around payments made during the 2016 presidential campaign and what happens if Trump is found guilty.
In 2016, Donald Trump, who later won the presidential election, allegedly paid $130,000 to adult film star Stormy Daniels to cover up a 2006 affair with adult film star Stormy Daniels that could have jeopardized his campaign. The 77-year-old Trump is accused of falsifying records to conceal this payment. Since April, he has been standing trial in a New York court. The concluding arguments are now imminent.
The payments themselves are not in dispute and are not illegal. However, the prosecution argues that Trump committed illegal campaign finance violations by covering up the payments.
If found guilty, Trump could face up to four years in prison for each of the 34 counts against him. However, legal experts suggest that, as a first-time offender, he is unlikely to serve jail time and will probably receive fine or probation. Actual jail time in similar cases is typically one year or less.
A conviction would not disqualify Trump from running as the Republican presidential candidate against Democrat Joe Biden in the upcoming November election.
The trial involved testimony from over 20 witnesses and several intense courtroom exchanges. As expected, Trump opted not to testify in his defense, avoiding the risk of cross-examination. Instead, he listened as Daniels detailed their alleged encounter in sometimes graphic terms.
Throughout the trial, Trump consistently attacked Judge Juan Merchan, labeling him “corrupt” and a “tyrant,” and denounced the proceedings as “election interference” orchestrated by Democrats to derail his campaign. Which is not hard to imagine considering the trial utmost “convenient” time. In the final days, prominent Republicans, including potential vice-presidential candidates, appeared in court to support Trump, emphasizing the political stakes of the case.
On Tuesday, Trump’s defense team will address the jury first, followed by the prosecution. The prosecutors must convince the twelve jurors that Trump falsified business records beyond a reasonable doubt.
Trump’s defense attorneys, on the other hand, only need to create enough doubt in the jurors’ minds to secure an acquittal. A unanimous decision is required; even one juror dissenting could lead to a hung jury, resulting in a mistrial. In such a case, the trial would be restarted, including the selection of a new jury.
After closing arguments, the jury will begin deliberations. They will have access to all evidence and can ask the judge questions. While there is no official time limit for deliberations, juries typically take several hours to a few days.
Once the jury reaches a unanimous verdict, they will inform the court. Judge Merchan will then summon the parties to the courtroom, and the jury foreperson will announce the verdict. Merchan must confirm the verdict, and both the defense and prosecution can request the judge to override the jury’s decision.
Following the verdict, it may take several weeks or months before the sentence is pronounced. .
Key testimony came from Michael Cohen, Trump’s former lawyer, who claimed he facilitated the $130,000 payment to Daniels to prevent her story from damaging Trump’s presidential bid. Trump’s defense team focused on discrediting Cohen, highlighting his history of lying to Congress and his imprisonment for tax fraud.
This case in New York is just one of several legal challenges Trump faces. He has been indicted in Washington and Georgia on charges related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election results and faces charges in Florida for allegedly mishandling classified documents. None of these additional trials are expected to occur before the November election.
Whether or not Trump will be convicted such big news takes time for voters to digest, and opinions can shift over time. Part of why James Comey’s October 28, 2016, letter about Hillary Clinton’s classified emails was so politically damaging was its timing — it came as many people were casting early votes and others were finalizing their decisions ahead of the November 8 election. While the Trump verdict will be historic, the election is still five months away, leaving plenty of time for voter sentiments to evolve.
Considering the degree to which this trial is politicized from prosecution having ties to the Democratic party to the left wing media openly advocating for Trumps conviction he handled the situation rather well aligning it with his ongoing campaign strategy.
Over the past week, Trump rallied alongside rap artists who are themselves defendants and convicted criminals. This pattern of behavior fits neatly into Trump’s 2024 campaign, in which he has expressed intentions to pardon those prosecuted for the January 6 Capitol riots and even lent his voice to a recording of the national anthem by a choir of January 6 inmates.
Historically, such associations might have been damaging for a presidential candidate, particularly one facing multiple indictments. However, with less than six months until Election Day, Trump appears to be embracing an outlaw image, aligning himself with accused criminals and convicts. Besides the image of a person fighting the unjust legal system is rather attractive to Black and Hispanic voters that has been experiencing the systematic oppression and have been long advocating for palpable changes.
Trump has turned his criminal charges into a campaign commodity, selling merchandise featuring his mug shot and raising funds off claims of persecution.
