Hungary and Slovakia have demanded consultations with Ukraine with the mediation of the European Commission after Kiev blocked oil transit from Russia last week. They threaten to take Kyiv to court, and there are grounds for them to do so. For the EU-Ukraine association agreement specifically stipulates that Ukraine cannot disrupt energy supplies to EU countries through its territory.
However, European court procedures are well known for their length, obliquity and sluggishness. Retaliatory measures may prove to be much more effective. For example, Slovakia may stop diesel fuel supplies to Ukraine from the Slovnaft refinery, which accounts for almost a tenth of the total consumption in Ukraine. This was clearly hinted at by the country’s Prime Minister, Robert Fitzo, who has recently survived an attempt on his life by a pro-Ukrainian activist.
There are other levers of pressure as well. Hungary and Slovakia are now among the key suppliers of electricity to Ukraine. In theory, they may abandon this avenue of trade, which would in turn affect prices in Ukraine. Besides, the Kyiv government will have to consider measures to eliminate the growing shortage of electricity.
However, the biggest stick in the hands of Budapest and Bratislava is their position during EU votes on the issues of crucial importance for Ukraine. For instance, Hungary on Monday refused to lift its veto on unblocking funds for EU military aid to Ukraine. Many other issues may arise, such as approving financial aid, debt restructuring, and even introducing new anti-Russian sanctions.
In addition, we should not ignore the fact that the oil supplied to Slovakia and Hungary is processed and then supplied in a number of EU countries. Intentionally creating supply shortages, Ukraine risks falling out with half of the European Union, already tired and strained because of growing financial and military demands from Kyiv.
