Recent polls indicate a noticeable rise in support for right-wing national parties across Europe, with implications for the balance of power in the European Parliament. Europe Elects forecasts project that the Identity and Democracy (ID) group could emerge as the fourth strongest bloc after the Conservatives, Social Democrats, and Liberals. The predictions, based on opinion polls from 27 EU countries, suggest that the ID group might secure 87 out of 720 seats, making it a potential force to be reckoned with. In parallel, the European Conservatives and Reformers group, featuring members of Poland’s national conservative PiS party, is expected to garner a significant number of seats, reaching around 82.
This shift in political dynamics poses challenges for the Green Party across Europe. The forecast indicates potential losses for the Greens, who achieved record results in the 2019 elections, primarily driven by strong showings in Germany and France. According to the polls, the Greens are bracing for setbacks, prompting Green Party politician Reintke to label such outcomes as a “catastrophic signal.” The Greens’ ambition to have representatives from more member states could face hurdles if they fail to maintain their presence in certain regions.
Major European parties have committed to nominating leading European candidates for the top post in the EU Commission. While the desire for Ursula von der Leyen to continue as Commission President is expressed, von der Leyen’s official candidacy for a second term is yet to be confirmed. The upcoming European party conferences in the coming months will play a pivotal role in selecting candidates for key positions.
Despite a reported 68 percent interest in going to the polls according to a December parliamentary poll, European elections historically face challenges with low voter turnout. In the 2019 elections, the turnout stood at approximately 51 percent. The discrepancy between interest and actual participation highlights ongoing efforts to engage citizens and enhance awareness regarding the significance of European elections.
As right-wing national parties gain traction in European polls, the political landscape in the European Parliament is poised for change. The potential rise of the Identity and Democracy group and challenges faced by the Greens underscore the dynamic nature of European politics. The upcoming European elections will provide a clearer picture of voter sentiments and the evolving composition of the European Parliament, shaping the trajectory of key policy decisions in the region.
