China, the once-dominant force in global population demographics, has recorded a decline in its population for the second consecutive year. Data released on Wednesday revealed that by the end of 2023, China’s population stood at 1.409 billion, marking a significant decrease of 2.08 million from the previous year. This decline, twice the magnitude of the preceding year, underscores a notable shift in demographic patterns and brings attention to the intricate factors contributing to this phenomenon.
The recent decline in China’s population can be attributed to a combination of factors, with experts highlighting the nation’s expanding urban class and record-low birth rate as key elements. China is mirroring the trajectories of other nations that have undergone rapid deindustrialization, though the speed of this transformation in China has been particularly swift.
According to Professor Stuart Gietl-Basten, a population policy expert at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, the population decline is not surprising. China has one of the lowest fertility rates globally, leading to a natural progression towards population stagnation or decline. He emphasizes that this trend is now entrenched, signifying a new era for China.
China has implemented various measures to counteract the declining birth rates. In the 1980s, the controversial one-child policy was introduced to control overpopulation, which was lifted in 2015. Additional incentives, such as subsidies and payments, were introduced to encourage family planning. In 2021, the government further relaxed restrictions, allowing couples to have up to three children.
However, these policies have not yielded the desired results, as evidenced by the persistent decline in birth rates. Young couples in modern cities cite deterrents like the high cost of living and prioritization of career goals, exacerbated by economic challenges following a three-year period of the COVID-19 pandemic.
China’s economic challenges, including a widespread property crisis, falling consumer spending, and record youth joblessness, have intensified the population decline. The country’s annual economic data for 2023 revealed one of the slowest growth rates in over three decades, expanding at 5.2% to reach 126 trillion yuan ($17.5tn; £13.8tn). This economic slowdown, excluding pandemic years, has contributed to concerns about the sustainability of China’s demographic trends.
As China faces a demographic shift, there are increasing pressures on healthcare and pension systems due to a growing retiree population, projected to increase by 60% to 400 million by 2035. Despite these challenges, experts believe that China has the time and resources to manage the transition in its workforce. The government, having foreseen this shift over the past decade, is expected to continue steering the nation in a direction aligned with global trends of deindustrialization.
China’s second consecutive year of population decline serves as a reflection of deep-seated trends driven by factors such as an expanding urban class, record-low birth rates, and economic challenges. Despite the concerns about the impact on the economy and social systems, experts believe that China, like other countries undergoing similar transitions, has the capacity to navigate these changes successfully. The evolving demographic landscape poses both challenges and opportunities for the nation as it adapts to a new era of population dynamics.
