A recent study published on Wednesday indicates a global trend toward declining fertility rates, which is anticipated to impact population levels significantly by the end of the century. The findings suggest that most live births worldwide will occur in low-income countries, thereby reshaping the distribution of global population burdens.
According to senior researcher Stein Emil Vollset from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, this trend is expected to create a divide between “baby boom” and “baby bust” scenarios across different regions of the world. Notably, the “baby boom” is projected to be concentrated in low-income countries, which are often vulnerable to economic and political instability.
The study, published in The Lancet, draws from data collected through surveys, censuses, and other sources spanning from 1950 to 2021 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. Researchers forecast that by 2050, approximately 76% of countries worldwide will experience fertility rates below population replacement levels. By 2100, this figure is expected to rise to 97%.
Furthermore, the study predicts that over three-quarters of live births by the end of the century will occur in low- and lower-middle-income countries, with a significant portion in sub-Saharan Africa.
The global fertility rate, which averaged around 5 children per woman in 1950, has decreased to 2.2 in 2021. This decline has led to concerns in countries like South Korea and Serbia, where fertility rates have dropped below 1.1 children per female, posing challenges related to workforce sustainability.
Vollset emphasized that many resource-limited countries will face the task of supporting rapidly growing populations amid various challenges, including political instability, economic strain, and health system deficiencies.
While declining fertility rates in high-income countries reflect advancements in women’s education and employment opportunities, researchers underscored the urgent need for improved access to modern contraception and female education in other regions.
Moreover, as populations in many countries begin to shrink, the study suggests that reliance on open immigration may become necessary to sustain economic growth.
The authors acknowledged limitations in their predictions, particularly regarding data quality and availability, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic period from 2020 to 2021.
