Two recent polls have presented concerning results for President Joe Biden following his recent debate with former President Donald Trump, indicating a potential shift in voter sentiment. A Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll released on Tuesday shows Trump leading Biden by 3 percentage points in a six-candidate race, a change from a previous survey that had the candidates tied. Meanwhile, a CNN/SSRS poll indicates Trump maintains a 6-point lead over Biden, unchanged from an earlier poll.
These findings are sparking renewed discussions among Democrats about Biden’s viability as the party’s nominee for the upcoming election. The CNN poll reveals that 56% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters believe the party would have a better chance of winning the presidency with a different candidate. In contrast, the Biden campaign points to other polls, including internal ones, that show the president either tied or ahead of Trump post-debate, suggesting the situation may not be as dire as some of the latest polls indicate.
The new Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll shows Trump leading Biden 43% to 40%, a shift from their previous tie. According to the poll, 50% of respondents viewed Trump as the debate winner, compared to 11% for Biden, while 28% felt neither candidate won.
Similarly, the CNN/SSRS poll found that 75% of voters felt Trump outperformed Biden in the debate, and only 23% believed Biden had a better showing. The poll also noted that while a significant portion of voters, 44%, claimed the debate did not change their voting decision, roughly a third said it made them more likely to support Trump, and 10% said it tipped them toward Biden.
The Biden campaign tries to remain optimistic, highlighting that internal polling and some external surveys still position Biden favorably. The campaign referenced historical examples, such as President Barack Obama’s temporary dip in polling after a poorly received debate in 2012, to argue that post-debate polling fluctuations are not necessarily indicative of long-term trends.
Amid growing speculation about potential alternatives to Biden, the CNN poll explored how other Democratic figures might perform against Trump. Vice President Kamala Harris was the only potential candidate to outperform Biden, with 45% support compared to Biden’s 43%. California Governor Gavin Newsom and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg matched Biden’s performance, while Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer trailed slightly with 42%.
Overall, 75% of voters believe the Democrats might have a better chance at winning the 2024 presidency with a candidate other than Biden, reflecting the party’s concerns about Biden’s ability to mount a successful campaign against Trump.
The CNN poll, conducted from June 28-30, surveyed 1,045 registered voters with a margin of error of ±3.7 percentage points. The USA TODAY poll, also conducted from June 28-30, surveyed 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points.
These polls underscore the current uncertainties within the Democratic Party regarding Biden’s candidacy and highlight the complexities facing his campaign as it navigates the evolving electoral landscape.
