A recent poll in Pennsylvania, a key battleground state, reveals a tight contest between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential race. Following President Joe Biden’s decision not to seek re-election, Harris experienced an initial surge in support, but the enthusiasm appears to be diminishing.
The poll, conducted by the Commonwealth Foundation from July 23-25, surveyed 800 voters in Pennsylvania. Results show Harris with a slim one-point lead over Trump in a head-to-head matchup, a margin that falls within the 3.46 percentage point margin of error. When third-party candidates are included, both frontrunners are tied at 44 percent, with Democrat-turned-independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. capturing 6 percent.
Harris has yet to announce her running mate, but Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is reportedly on a shortlist alongside Arizona Governor Mark Kelly and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. All three potential candidates are white men, which some believe could balance a ticket led by Harris, a Black and Asian woman.
Governor Shapiro is actively campaigning for Harris, joining Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer in Philadelphia on Monday. Whitmer, once considered a potential presidential candidate, has indicated that Harris is expected to choose her running mate shortly before the Democratic National Convention next month.
Another recent poll by Fox News also shows Trump and Harris tied at 49 percent each in Pennsylvania. The state, which offers 19 Electoral College votes, is crucial for a November victory. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 by a narrow 0.7 percent margin, but the state flipped to Biden in 2020 with a 1.2 percent lead.
Pennsylvania, along with Michigan and Wisconsin, is considered one of the three key swing states for the 2024 election, according to the Cook Political Report. Harris might choose Shapiro as her running mate to secure a win in Pennsylvania, given his potential to appeal to local voters and Jewish constituencies. However, his support for private-school vouchers has sparked controversy among pro-public education groups, who argue it contradicts core Democratic values.
Governor Shapiro defended his stance in a Wall Street Journal interview, stating, “It’s important that we lift up all God’s children, and we give special attention to those who are poor kids in struggling school districts.” Despite this, over two dozen small pro-public education groups have urged Harris not to select Shapiro, emphasizing the importance of public education as fundamental to democracy.
As the campaign progresses, the decision on Harris’s running mate and the continued polling will play critical roles in shaping the 2024 presidential race.
